Cost Crunch! Soaring Silicon and Silver Prices + Export Tax Rebate Cancellation – Will You Accept RMB 1/W PV Modules?
High silicon material prices, surging silver costs, and the cancellation of export tax rebates are driving profound restructuring in the photovoltaic industry.
In the short term, the industry is entering an adjustment period marked by cost absorption and capacity consolidation. While downstream players have partially accepted the rise in module prices, restoring profitability across the entire supply chain will take time. The silicon material segment is the first to benefit, whereas the cell and module segments face greater challenges in recovering profits due to high silver paste costs. This is intensifying corporate differentiation, with leading enterprises stabilizing through capital and technological advantages, while small and medium-sized players are under pressure to halt production or transform.
From a medium-term perspective, technological innovation will become the core driver of corporate competitiveness. Soaring silver prices are forcing the industry to accelerate the adoption of low-silver or silver-free technologies, with leading companies already making progress in reducing silver paste consumption and adopting silver-coated copper alternatives. Additionally, the “high-efficiency modules” prioritized by central and state-owned enterprises are seen as a key tool for leading companies to drive capacity consolidation.
In the long run, the industry will shift from “scale competition” to “value competition.” The year 2026 is expected to mark the end of the industry’s reliance on low-price, extensive competition, ushering in an era focused on technological innovation and refined management. Policy-driven mergers and acquisitions will further optimize the industrial structure, steering the photovoltaic industry toward a healthier, more sustainable, and high-quality development path.
Post time: Feb-02-2026